Once I could handle the truth, 

When the truth was you and I, 

But time after time all the promises

Turned out to be all lies

Now, I see that you’re somebody

Who wasted my time and money

What lie, oh, what a lie

Oh you, you and I, 

What about your 10, 000 promises?

That you gave to me

Your 10, 000 promises

That you promised

I am sure Backstreet Boys didn’t think of any political scenario while composing the above song. But if you listen to it in an election season, you will ask the same question: Kya hua tera waada.. wo kasam wo iraada? (What about the promises you have made and dreams you have shown?) While political parties are busy polishing their images and giving us a new set of 10,000 promises, we must keep our adrenalin rush in check before we cast our votes.

Beware of fake news! Fake news and real news are like identical twins, sometimes even the news guardian a.k.a media house,, who produced them cannot spot the difference. (Look at this page – Times Fact Check, I wonder how a normal Times page and this be different. Fact checking is what they are supposed to do, right?). Both main parties (BJP – Bhartiya Janta Party and INC/Congress: Indian National Congress), through their own network of bhakts (fans or followers) have been doing it for a long time, but during this period it can be too aggressive and the differences subtle. There are many fact checking websites like Boom Live, India Spends, Factly, etc. that you can refer.

Now let us talk about ‘messiah of development’, Narendra Damodardas Modi, a man who promised us ‘roti, kapda, makaan and vikas’ in 2014 elections. Then incumbent government’s apathy and corruption scandals, his promises of jobs and development, his influential speeches and  Gujarat’s development model defined ‘Modi wave’ in 2014. Modi, not only mesmerised countrymen but also Indians residing abroad. His charisma on international platforms has been unprecedented. His speeches in Hindi language, love for yoga and efforts for creating International Solar Alliance added to the kitty of India’s soft powers. He promised us cleaner government, roads, railway stations and river Ganga. (Finance Minister allocated billions of rupees through Swachh Bharat Cess to achieve the objective). The government has been without any blotch for now. There have been some attempts to stigmatise the Saaf Niyat (good intentions) image by Congress, but it has failed to prove anything (as of now). However, with regard to clean public places, except railway stations, cleanliness at other places needs attention. We can still give credit to the government for such grand-scale awareness on cleanliness and making India open-defecation free in their tenure. Now it is our turn to keep public places clean, a habit that may take a couple of more campaigns to imbibe in us. With Digital India, there has been  tremendous improvement right from JAM trinity (Jan Dhan – Aadhar – Mobile) to simpler governance. Though mandatory linking of Aadhar was too aggressive, Honourable Supreme Court’s verdict on privacy came to our rescue. Railways witnessed massive upgradation in the last four years which was one of the most underperforming sectors until 2014. Rest of the infrastructure sector, which had many setbacks during UPA-II (United Progressive Alliance led by Congress) have been revived by the current government. 27 kms of roads are built in a day, inland waterways are in pipeline and metro construction has gained momentum. We can also see many such projects around these days.

However, Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas slogan has truly failed, rather was doomed to fail.

However, Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas (With everyone’s support comes everyone’s development) slogan has truly failed, rather was doomed to fail. This isn’t a political statement, but an economic one. From one perspective, economics is a science of scarcity, that all people cannot be satisfied at all times. However, politicians make us believe that it is not true and we believed it in 2014. On one hand Infrastructure and Transport Ministry gets applause for building nation-wide new infrastructure while on the other hand, environmental ministry has taken a back-seat. Numerous environmental laws have been flouted and altered (See Dhruv Rathee’s tweet).  In case of Mumbai’s coastal roads, fishermen community is urging court and officials to reconsider the plan as it will impact their livelihood. In a recent study by Lancet Planetary Health journal, around 12 lakh people have died of pollution in India in 2017 itself. Bengaluru’s Belandur and Varthur lakes caught foam and fire, Delhi is covered with smoke while construction particles get inhaled in Mumbai. Whom should we blame? Even media and opposition have neglected these topics! Though initial two years under NDA (National Democratic Alliance led by BJP) government showed a better report card than in the last two years. His speeches used to get more attention and TRPs but his image dented after the series of massive blows like demonetisation, GST, cow-lynching, polarisation and farmers’ distress.

Government could not revamp public sector companies like Air India, BSNL and MTNL and has abdicated its responsibility of creating good public healthcare (through Ayushman Bharat; though the idea is great, it does not solve the root problem), public transport (basic public transportation include intra-city publicly funded bus and non-metro train services) and public educational institutions too (through Institute of Eminence recognition; again a good intention of having world class institutions but such policy creates rift within universities and students of different categories). Economists like Raghuram Rajan, Arvind Subramanian and Urjit Patel exited offices during these five years. Two statisticians, P. C. Mohanan and J. V. Meenakshi have left NSC (Read:The Wire) citing lack of involvement in key decisions and hampering commission’s independence. It is said that the GDP back series data for the period during UPA rule has been revised downwards by making some changes in the methodology. The back-series data was also released by Niti Aayog (it is constituted as a ‘think-tank’ only) which is not even a norm. The other issue pertains to the employment data. Exiting members and the government have different stories to tell (Read: ET). CMIE study shows that India lost 11 million jobs in 2018. A leaked Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2017-18 (published by NSSO) shows that current unemployment rate (6%) is the highest in last 45 years. However, the government believes that this survey needs to be revisited in order to understand the dynamics entirely. According to a CII report, 60 million people have got jobs in medium and small enterprises.     Former Niti Aayog Chairman Arvind Pangariya quotes that underemployment rather than unemployment is the problem in India. Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant argues that it is not possible for the economy to grow at 7% and not create any job. Countering this argument, many experts have been sceptical of the “7%” growth itself in light of large-scale social unrest and aberrant movement of other indicators (auto sales are declining, consumption has hit, exports have stagnated, etc.). This has created confusion and distrust with respect to sanctity of statistical numbers. Around 100 economists have raised concerns over these numbers and have urged the government for an independent evaluation of these data. The nation really wants to know what exactly this number-game all about is. There is also resistance towards foreign return economists within the government; where Modi once said that hard-work won over Harvard during UP state elections. The government also believes that western ideas and philosophies do not apply to Indian scenario and thus more home-grown economists are needed. I admire and second this thought, but we cannot undermine intellectual capabilities of any economist or expert, irrespective of the place of study or work. At the same time, does the government or any economist have an ‘Alt-Economics’ theory, which is conducive to our economy? (If demonetisation is the answer, then read the next paragraph). Unfortunately, the government has failed to retain talent.

Unfortunately, the government has failed to retain talent.

Demonetisation, that was launched as a surgical strike against black money has been changed to creation of cashless economy and is now the main cause of ‘job-loss’ growth.

According to a recent Indian Express article, there has been 10 times rise in number of stop filers of income tax return for financial year 2016-17. Stop filers are the individuals, who used to file income tax returns but have stopped filing them due to lower income for a particular year. This number has been decreasing for many years. It was close to 8 lakhs in FY16 which increased to 88 lakhs in FY17. It means in the year of demonetisation, income of 88 lakhs individuals reduced. It could be due to loss in cash income or jobs of people working in unorganised or rural sectors. There might be other reasons as well, but neither any journalist is asking government about it and nor has the government responded to this study. On one hand government has taken credit for surge in number of tax return filings and increased direct tax revenue while on the other hand millions have lost their jobs and ceased to file returns. However, CBDT clarified later that they do not maintain any such database, instead they calculate ‘drop filers’ (a person who was earlier in the filer base but has not filed return in any of the last three financial years) list. It said that number of drop filers have decreased, opposite of what the Indian Express article shows. Data are becoming more questionable than ever. Demonetisation, that was launched as a surgical strike against black money has been changed to creation of cashless economy and is now the main cause of ‘job-loss’ growth. Apart from unorganised sectors of towns and cities, rural India is facing another big challenge. Agricultural sector grew at 2% during third quarter of FY19. Farmers did not even realise the government guaranteed minimum support price (MSP) for their crops. Negative working capital and low rainfall have resulted into low rabi sowing in the last year. Lack of employment opportunities elsewhere have added to their grief leading to outbursts in the form of protests, bandhs and marches. PM-Kisan, quick credit to MSMEs and interest subvention were thus damage control buttons for such problems. Agricultural distress is real and cannot be ignored.

Agricultural distress is real and cannot be ignored.

Apart from agricultural distress, the government is alleged for disturbing the social orders of liberty and secularism. Right-wing authoritarianism has become hostile for freedom of expression and is affecting minorities more. Lynching on account of cow-vigilantism had been in vogue for some time in the nation. However, the overweening PM is keeping mum about these incidents. Over 600 artists urged not to elect BJP government again. In 2015-16, there were Award wapsees (return of awards) by eminent literary persons in protest against brutal murders of journalists and intellectuals. Government’s nonchalance in accepting the existence of all these problems is the most serious problem.BJP is rather trying to divert the real issue by making us believe that national security is more important. It has set the wheels of campaign such that a vote to Congress means being anti-national or inviting terrorism. There are four important points to highlight. Firstly, there is no reason to believe that Indian defence forces will become weak if Congress comes to power. Secondly, terrorism is not going to vanish from the world so easily. Thirdly, empowering Kashmiri youth through constant dialogue, employment and protection of the local culture is more important for maintaining peace in the valley. Lastly, such campaigning not only sets a wrong narrative but also weakens the democracy. Even BJP’s veteran leader L. K. Advani disparaged such thought in his recent blog.

Government’s nonchalance in accepting the existence of all these problems is the most serious problem.

Having said that, Congress is no better than BJP. The party which ruled the country for almost all years since independence gets all the credits and discredits for our good, bad and ugly performances (Like they credited Nehru and Indira Gandhi for setting up and strengthening ISRO after the successful Anti-Satellite achievement last month). Even if you want to, you cannot ignore them. Mathematically speaking, Congress is an intercept of India’s performance. (General Equation: Y = α + βX + error term; India’s Equation: Y(2019) = Congress(1947-2014) + β * BJP(2014-2019) + Error; and these elections will determine the slope of BJP). Currently, Congress seems shattered and scattered. Though Rahul Gandhi is really trying to pitch his voice and stitch the pieces within party, people barely trust him as a prime ministerial candidate. Many people (who do not have any prior bias) are confused whom should they vote this time. They need someone more appealing than Rahul Gandhi and less autocratic than Narendra Modi. Will people give Modi another chance for his (questionable) “Saaf Niyat”? Will people forget bad days during Congress’ rule and give NYAY (justice) to anti-incumbency? Will they weigh the NDA government based on current performance or on the current narrative? Will they judge Congress or CPI or other parties based on what they intend to promise?

What will be your choice?

 – Swapnil Karkare

(Views expressed are personal and do not intend to hurt anybody’s feelings)